U.S. aluminium prices remain far above LME base rates due to tariffs and supply constraints – 28 January 2026
American aluminium buyers now face sharply higher all-in prices with physical metal trading at a ~68% premium over LME base pricing, driven by sustained import tariffs and tight U.S. stocks, with “all-in” delivered costs exceeding USD 5,000/t in some market estimates.
👉 Source: Reuters / U.S. market premiums — https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/metals/us-aluminium-consumers-pay-spiralling-cost-tariffs-2026-01-21/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Summary :
There are a handful of greenfield projects but these are several years away from producing first metal, even assuming they can compete with Big Tech for long-term power supplies.
In the interim, the U.S. remains dependent on imports of primary metal and these have been falling. Volumes were down by 14% in the first 10 months of 2025 relative to 2024.
Canada, historically the largest supplier to the U.S. market, started diverting shipments to Europe around May last year.
It exported 225,000 tons to the Netherlands, 89,000 tons to Italy and 29,000 tons to Poland between May and October, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
U.S. stocks of primary metal have been sliding.
The short time-lag between tariff hikes didn’t allow for much preemptive stockpiling and in-country inventory has shrunk from 750,000 tons at the start of 2025 to below 300,000 tons, according to consultancies Harbor Aluminum and Wittsend Commodity Advisors.
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